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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to SF 21, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-T.Benjamin to SF 28 for 7 yards (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.27 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model