4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 73

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to GB 28, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model