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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model