Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 88

Green Bay Packers 10 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(4:50) 7-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 94-J.Willis, Center-46-S.Wirtel, RECOVERED by SF-29-T.Hufanga at GB 6. 29-T.Hufanga for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.07 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model