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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to CIN 34, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 42 for 8 yards (96-M.Hoecht).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model