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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 83

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(:42) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to LA 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-B.Powell to LA 41 for 9 yards (31-Mi.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.92 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 83, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 41, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model