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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:12) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.99 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP