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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 22

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(13:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles up the middle to LA 18 for 4 yards (24-T.Rapp).

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.60 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model