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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 8-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.79 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model