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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 56

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to CIN 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model