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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 79

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(:43) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to LA 47, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-B.Powell to LA 48 for 1 yard (80-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.17 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 36, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model