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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to CIN 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP