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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 34-S.Perine [99-A.Donald].

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.31 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model