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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to CIN 10, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 30 for 20 yards (38-B.Howell).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.76 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP