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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-N.Moore. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 29 for 17 yards (53-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.29 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model