4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 71

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 7-B.Mann punts 41 yards to BAL 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 38 for 8 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.77 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model