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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 76

New York Jets 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 7-B.Mann punts 20 yards to NYJ 44, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model