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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 61

New York Jets 3 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to BAL 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-26-B.Echols.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.15 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP