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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 24 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to NYJ 19, Center-46-N.Moore. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 32 for 13 yards (26-G.Stone, 22-Da.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.22 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model