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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 28

New York Jets 3 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 84-C.Davis to BAL 21 for 7 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.20 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model