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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Jets
4th & 6 at the 6
New York Jets 3 – Baltimore Ravens 24
What Actually Happened
(4:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 32-Mi.Carter.
The Three Options
GO
+2.00 EP
What Happened
-
35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 6, worth -0.21 EP
KICK
+2.06 EP
Model's Pick
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
