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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to NYJ 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.19 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 51, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP