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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 82

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to BAL 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.54 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 82, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 40, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model