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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to NYJ 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model