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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to BUF 25 for 3 yards (58-M.Milano, 91-E.Oliver). BUF-91-E.Oliver was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.36 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model