Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 90

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Buffalo Bills 10

(13:08) 11-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to BUF 42, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.97 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 90, worth -5.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model