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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 11-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to BUF 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.90 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model