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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(8:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-D.Henderson up the middle to LA 34 for 1 yard (30-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.53 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model