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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(:47) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 1-Al.Robinson (47-C.Benford).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +4.72 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP