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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 11-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to BUF 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 32 for 20 yards (35-J.Hummel).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.89 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 27, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model