Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(13:38) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to CLE 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-D.Felton to CLE 35 for no gain (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.11 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model