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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 21 – Cleveland Browns 23

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.52 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model