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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 10-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to CLE 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-D.Felton to CLE 35 for 6 yards (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.91 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model