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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to CAR 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.41 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model