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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 31

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.13 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model