Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Denver Broncos 13

(13:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-M.Washington to DEN 20 for 3 yards (25-T.Homer).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model