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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 8

Denver Broncos 13 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.93 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model