Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Denver Broncos 16

(4:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-19-P.Hart.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.42 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model