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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 27

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.85 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model