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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 70

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to IND 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.02 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP