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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 41

Houston Texans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to IND 4, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 15 for 11 yards (29-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.83 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model