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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 9

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 3-R.Blankenship 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model