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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 56

Houston Texans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 12 for no gain (1-T.Smith). FUMBLES (1-T.Smith), recovered by IND-34-I.Rodgers at IND 12. 34-I.Rodgers to IND 9 for -3 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.56 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -2.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model