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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 3-R.Blankenship 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP