4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 2

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:14) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 21-N.Hines. 21-N.Hines up the middle to HOU 4 for -2 yards (52-J.Greenard).

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model