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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Jacksonville Jaguars
4th & 3 at the 3
Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Washington Commanders 14
What Actually Happened
(5:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 1-T.Etienne.
The Three Options
GO
+2.61 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
- 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.02 EP
KICK
+1.92 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
