4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 19 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(:20) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.73 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model