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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 10-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model