4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 25

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 10-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.69 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model