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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 14-A.Lee punts 57 yards to KC 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 24-S.Moore pushed ob at KC 25 for 13 yards (89-S.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.85 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 27, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model